Doomsday odds to improve


According to a new analysis, the chances of human civilization surviving long enough to colonise other planets may be better than previously thought.

The doomsday argument predicts humanity’s prospects of survival based on how many humans have lived so far. Based on this figure, it estimates a 95% chance that no more than 1.4 trillion humans will ever live. Taking into account the rate of population growth, it estimates that we will reach this point in 10,000 years.

However, a new theoretical concept known as the ‘universal doomsday argument’ distinguishes between the many civilizations on earth, some which may be short-lived due to existential threats, and others which may be long-lived and go on to potentially colonise the galaxy.

The original doomsday argument predicts chance of long-term survival at zero, but according to the new universal doomsday argument, the chance of long-term survival is between 1 and 10%.

You can read more here.

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