Outperforming even the most voracious and ruthless human invaders, the Black Death decimated English towns of all sizes in the mid-fourteenth century, killing more than half of the population in places like Nottingham (a city in central England). Historians have long believed that many urban areas in medieval England experienced a long-term decline in their populations and their fortunes following this plague outbreak, possibly taking centuries to get fully back on track.
But a new study by historian Scott C. Lomax challenges this notion. Harvesting data from court records, tax lists, and archaeological reports for the city of Nottingham, Lomax found that English cities rebounded far more quickly than expected, as migration and economic innovation helped them thrive despite the challenges they faced during these extraordinary times.
“The evidence suggests that after sustained population growth into at least the 1330s, approximately 60 per cent of the townspeople died during the Black Death of 1349,” Lomax wrote in an article about his research published in the journal Continuity and Change. “However, significant migration by the early 1350s, and again in the late fourteenth and early fifteenth centuries, led to periods of population recovery.”
Lomax’s relied on a broad range of historical evidence to gain more accurate data about 14th century population trends in Nottingham, a city with a 1500-year history of settlement.
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“Archaeological evidence, together with documentary sources, indicates urban expansion from the second half of the fourteenth century, with substantial growth by the early sixteenth century—contradicting traditional narratives of abandonment and decline,” he wrote.
Long-Term Population Decline? Not in Nottingham
For years, historians have leaned heavily on taxation records—such as the poll taxes from 1377 to 1381 and the Tudor-era lay subsidies of the early 1500s—to estimate urban populations in medieval England. The problem is that these data points offer isolated snapshots, making it difficult to assess longer-term population trends after the plague years.
Map of Nottingham in medieval times. (Medievalist.net).
Many scholars interpreted the figures that were available as signs of sustained urban decline, undoubtedly linked to the Black Death. But Lomax argues that this interpretation is flawed, based as it is on incomplete data.
Tax records are often incomplete, omitting large groups including women, children, and those who evaded taxation. Historians have tried to adjust for this by applying population multipliers, but results vary considerably. For instance, Nottingham’s estimated population in 1377 ranges from between 2,171 to 3,508 depending on the method of calculation, while estimates for 1524 fall between 1,180 and 2,065. These wide-ranging numbers call into question the reliability of tax data, if viewed in isolation..
Lomax’s analysis takes a different path, blending several types of evidence to arrive at a more nuanced and multilayered picture of how Nottingham's population evolved in the wake of the Black Death.
Rather than focusing solely on tax rolls (although he did scrutinize them), Lomax consulted court records from the time and looked closely at the results of medieval archaeological surveys. Together, these materials help Lomax challenge the widely held belief that English towns entered a prolonged state of decay after the Black Death. His findings suggest that rather than a steady decline, population levels in Nottingham experienced phases of rebound and regrowth.
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The plague that struck Nottingham in 1349 wiped out around 50—60% of the town’s residents, throwing its daily functions and economic systems into disarray. But Lomax’s research showed that Nottingham started to recover sooner than many had assumed.
A scene portraying the Black death, with the spectre of death in attendance, in a miniature from the 15th century. (Public Domain).
Records from the borough court indicate a noticeable rise in newcomers as early as the 1350s. Many of these individuals carried locally common surnames—like de Beeston, de Sneinton, and de Derby—showing they were migrants from surrounding villages and towns. Lomax also identified additional migration surges in the late 1300s and early 1400s, pointing to a pattern of periodic growth driven by people seeking new opportunities in the wake of disaster.
Surprising Signs of Urban Growth and Expansion
Lomax disputes the notion that vast parts of Nottingham were left vacant for generations after the plague. Some earlier studies, especially archaeological surveys, proposed that certain districts—particularly on the eastern edge of the city—remained uninhabited until much later. But by revisiting both tax data and legal documents, Lomax found signs that these neighborhoods were being reoccupied far earlier than previously suggested.
Property records show that many abandoned homes were back in use by the late 1300s. Tax rolls also reflect a rise in taxpayers in areas that had supposedly been deserted. Instead of a city in decline, Nottingham appears to have been a place of adaptation and resilience, and it retained an identity as a welcoming place for migrants looking for affordable housing and new economic opportunities.
Lomax also notes a social transformation taking place during this recovery period. By the 1400s, poorer residents were appearing less frequently in borough court records. This may reflect increasing legal costs that priced out the lower classes, suggesting a widening gap between rich and poor even as the town’s overall population was on the rise.
The historic medieval landmark Nottingham Castle, on Castle Rock in the English city of Nottingham, as seen from the Castle Marina Retail Park. (Stephen McKay/Geograph Britain and Ireland/CC BY-SA 2.0).
While this study zeroes in on Nottingham, Lomax believes his research methodology could prove fruitful if used on a broader basis.
“The methodology requires testing with other towns which have the required sources, in particular court rolls and reports of major archaeological excavations,” he wrote in his journal article. “Other towns with court rolls include London, York, Norwich, Lincoln, Lynn, Chester, Exeter, Colchester, and Yarmouth. If its application is successful elsewhere, this approach can make a significant contribution, by generating more case studies, to enhance our understanding of urban population change during the late medieval period.”
Top image: Painting by Pierart dou Tielt (1353) showing family members of plague victims burying the coffins of their loved ones, including their children.
Source: Public Domain.
By Nathan Falde
